by Bernard Bujold –
We are two months away from the Quebec elections and as a famous television host said: “If the trend continues …” 
According to me, the trend favors Philippe Couillard who would form a minority government. 
I had written in my diary on June 22nd those projections; 
Liberal 60, 
CAQ 40, 
PQ 23 and 
QS 2. 
It will be necessary to see on October 1st if I continue in my success of “champion” among the “Monday Quarter back” in the world of political projections… 
The reasons for my October screening are: 
1. the distribution of the current seats (Liberal Party 67 MPs – PQ 28 – CAQ 21 – QS 3 – INDEPENDENTS 6); 
2. the fact that Couillard has the government portfolio and that he subsidizes widely the various groups who reproach his government; 
3. and above all that Legault does not have a nice aura and he has not managed to create a media wave. 
In all the cases of my previous projections, the winner had always been an attractive media figure. Today’s society wants attractive figures. And voters choose a leader rather than a political party. 
Philippe Couillard in 2014 was the good doctor who came back to the wheel after Charest forced him to leave the boat; Justin in 2015 was the son of a legend while the whole country was tired of Stephen and Thomas did not light his audience; Donald was the perfect media image of the rebel savior a little like Che Guevara; and finally Valérie Plante won on one element: her perfect smile. Jack Layton’s first campaign smile was too artificial and he became the clown of the election, but Valerie’s smile was perfect. 
An election is never decided on the logic but on the deep feelings of the population concerned. The feeling of security of the good doctor Philippe, the aura of the legendary father of Justin, the rebel and courageous ardor of the candidate Donald or the nice smile that comes to compensate the arrogance and the anger of the outgoing mayor. 
According to me, on October 1st, Philippe Couillard will be seen again as the good doctor securing the risk of undefined change that represents his main opponent François Legault. 
I am not a fan of Couillard and if I had the choice, the next head of government would be Jean-François Lisée, a high-level intellectual but politics is not the place for great theories… 
So if the trend continues, Couillard will be the next Prime Minister of Quebec! 
Also, the advertising campaign by the Quebec unions reflects an angle that says a lot about the division in the intentions of votes. Such a state of mind against the two leading candidates could create surprises in the final result in favour of Couillard, especially with two other parties in the race! 


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